SmolderLabs
Live dashboard

How the incubator is performing.

A live view of startup launches, experiment cycles, outcomes, and spend across the portfolio.

Total ventures
4
3 live
BML cycles
99
Persevere
97
learnings kept
Pivot / Kill
1 / 1
course corrections
Factory loop

Cycle outcomes.

The factory is itself a venture. Each completed factory cycle ends in a decision: `persevere`, `pivot`, or `kill`.

Factory decision outcomes
96%
persevere rate
Cycles
24
persevere
23
pivot / kill
1
Factory persevere rate (rolling-5)
24 cycles
Spend

How efficiently we launch.

Total
$3.29
Factory
$0.532
meta-loop
Ventures
$2.76
all loops
Per promote
$0
all promotes
LLM calls
757
Input tokens
832.2k
Output tokens
171.3k
Attribution

Where the factory burns budget.

Factory spend by tag
Which loop step (code-evolve, factory-evolve, dispatch …) is consuming the meta-loop budget.
BucketSpendShareCallsTokens
plan$0.25849%27107.3k
build$0.09718%2627.6k
measure$0.05410%2410.2k
learn$0.05310%2412.2k
ship$0.0346%2311.6k
decide$0.0275%2417.6k
dispatch$0.00802%31.1k
factory-evolve$00%10
code-evolve$00%10
Factory spend by model
Mix of model tiers used in the meta-loop. Override pricing via FORGE_MODEL_PRICING.
BucketSpendShareCallsTokens
claude-sonnet-4-6$0.532100%84113.2k
fixture-1$00%310
mistral-nemo:latest$00%1210.0k
gemma4:26b$00%2664.3k
Return on AI

Human equivalent value.

What would this same incubator workload cost with a traditional human team? This compares that estimate to actual AI spend.

Human equivalent
$133,418
at market rates
AI cost
$3.29
LLM token spend
Value multiplier
40,508×
human ÷ AI cost
Savings
$133,414
vs human team
Human-equivalent cost by activity
Rates: design $75/hr · engineering $100/hr · analytics $60/hr · management $125/hr · R&D $100/hr. Override via FORGE_WORK_RATES.
ActivityRoleUnitsHrs / unitRateHuman costShare
buildEngineering998h$100/hr$79,20059%
shipEngineering992h$100/hr$19,80015%
planDesign / PM992h$75/hr$14,85011%
decideManagement990.5h$125/hr$6,1885%
measureAnalytics991h$60/hr$5,9404%
learnAnalytics991h$60/hr$5,9404%
factory-managementManagement240.5h$125/hr$1,5001%
Portfolio

Spend by startup.

VentureCyclesStatusSpendTokens
venture-factory
Forge Factory — the venture-incubator venture that bootstrap
24active$0.532187.5k
venture-20260427-forge-technology-advisory-c9cb
A fractional CTO and principal-engineering practice delivere
25active$0.835242.6k
venture-20260427-forge-marketing-7b84
A marketing foundation venture: charter-aware landing pages
25active$0.711198.8k
venture-20260427-forge-telemetry-90ff
A drop-in analytics and experimentation platform purpose-bui
25active$0.684187.2k
Activity
Every plan, build, ship, measure, learn, and decide event across the factory loop.
View all →